Research into forecasting conflict by Professor Christopher Rauh has been featured in the weekend edition of the National News. Conflict Forecast, a project that uses artificial intelligence to predict where outbreaks of violence will occur in the world, noticed a surge in discussion of military activity in Russian media in April.
A new study co-authored by Emeritus Professor Andrew Harvey produces good forecasts of epidemics before new cases or deaths peak.
Dr. Christopher Rauh spoke to the NOVAFRICA Sustainable Development Talks series about his research into conflict prediction.
The new paper “Face Value: Trait Impressions, Performance Characteristics, and Market Outcomes for Financial Analysts” is being published in a top accounting journal, the Journal of Accounting Research.
The study published in Harvard Data Science Review, focuses on the spread of epidemics and specifically the current COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, but the models are applicable to many other disciplines as well.
Forecasting a phenomenon like armed conflict up to a year in advance is difficult, and history has shown conflict might suddenly appear out of a previously long lived and low level dispute.
Why we fail to prevent civil wars: A forecaster's perspective, is a joint paper between Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh. Voxeu spoke to them about their research.